* Replication Do File: Early and Peksen,"Shadow Economies and the Success of Economic Sanctions:Explaining Why Democratic Targets are Disadvantaged," FPA

NOTE: We used STATA 13.1 to estimate all the models.

*Table 1 
*(Minor Trade and Environmental Sanctions Excluded)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2<6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*(ALL Sanctions)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if selectpolity2<6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 

*SE Growth and Sanct Effectiveness Figure
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
margins, at((mean) _all USsender=0 targetcosts=1 shadecondiff=(-8 (2) 8)) pr(pcond) force
*marginsplot, title("") ytitle( pr(Sanction Outcome=1)) xtitle(Shadow Economy Growth) graphregion(color(white)) 


*****ONLINE APPENDIX*****
*Appendix Table A1- Single Stage Models
*Full Success - Full Model
probit impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender, robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
probit impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if selectpolity2>=6, robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
probit impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if selectpolity2<6, robust 

*Appendix Table A2- Models with the Alternative Sanctions DV
*(Minor Trade and Environmental Sanctions Excluded)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob successalt shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
heckprob successalt shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
heckprob successalt shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2<6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 

*Appendix Table A3- Sum Stats
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
sum impositionsuccess shadecondiff100 imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender imposition selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar if e(sample)

*Appendix Table A4- The impact on Different Authoritarin regimes
*(Minor Trade and Envr Sanctions Excluded)
*Personalist Regimes
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100 imposedshadecon moncpersonshadecondiff100 monarchpersonal military party   institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Military Regimes
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100 imposedshadecon militaryshadecondiff100 monarchpersonal military party institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Single Party Regimes
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100 imposedshadecon partyshadecondiff100 monarchpersonal military party institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 

*Appendix Table A5- Change in SE variable based on the average SE score 3-year and 5-year prior to sanctions
*3-YEAR SCORE
*(Minor Trade and Environmental Sanctions Excluded)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess threeshadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess threeshadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess threeshadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2<6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*5-YEAR SCORE
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess fiveshadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess fiveshadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess fiveshadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2<6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 

*Appendix Table A6- Anocracies
*(ALL Sanctions)
*Full Success - Anocracies
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if selectpolity2>=-7 & selectpolity<7, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust
*(Minor Trade and Environmental Sanctions Excluded)
*Full Success - Anocracies
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2>=-7 & selectpolity<7, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 

*Appendix Table A7- Polity2 - SE size and growth interaction terms
*(ALL Sanctions)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100 imposedshadecon sediffdemocinteract institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*(Minor Trade and Environmental Sanctions Excluded)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon sediffdemocinteract institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
**Models with Interaction Term with the Democracy Dummy
*(ALL Sanctions)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100 imposedshadecon sediffdemdummyinteract institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 demdummy USsender, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*(Minor Trade and Environmental Sanctions Excluded)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess shadecondiff100  imposedshadecon sediffdemdummyinteract institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 demdummy USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 

*Appendix Table A8: Alternative SE variable (Last year of SE score)
*(ALL Sanctions)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess altshadecondiff100 SEendyearscore institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess altshadecondiff100 SEendyearscore institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess altshadecondiff100 SEendyearscore institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if selectpolity2<6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*(Minor Trade and Environmental Sanctions Excluded)
*Full Success - Full Model
heckprob impositionsuccess altshadecondiff100 SEendyearscore institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess altshadecondiff100 SEendyearscore institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2>=6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 
*Full Success - Non-Democracies
heckprob impositionsuccess altshadecondiff100  SEendyearscore institution targetcosts  imposeddyadtradegdp imposedtargetgdp1000 imposedpolity20 USsender if tradeenvironmentsanct==0 & selectpolity2<6, sel(imposition= selecprioryearshadwecon capability seldyadtradegdp selecttargetgdp1000 allianceselect USsender2 postcoldwar ) nolog robust 

